S&P 500 and Nasdaq rise led by tech, Dow struggles as Street wraps up wild week: Live updates

It’s a big week next week for Starbucks, which is set to report earnings on Wednesday and host an investor day on Thursday.

Deutsche Bank anticipates the possibility of some downside risk to the coffee chain’s full-year 2026 guidance, but thinks long-term targets could surprise to the upside. It thinks 2027 and 2028 are likely to be outsized growth years as Starbucks’ top-line recovers and the company optimizes its cost structure.

“We think next week could be a positive catalyst as SBUX provides much needed visibility to the path back to historical margins and drivers of sustainably, solidly positive SSS [same-store sales], which could support meaningful upside to current estimates (and sentiment),”analyst Lauren Silberman said in a note Thursday.

Shares of Starbucks were up around 1% in afternoon trading.

— Michelle Fox

The Russell 2000 pulled back sharpy from all-time highs on Friday, dragging the small cap-focused index into negative territory on the week.

The index slid nearly 1.7% in midday trading, on track for its worst day since November. With that decline, the Russell 2000 was down around 0.2% on the week.

Friday’s action marks a turn for the Russell 2000, which has been outperforming the broader market in 2026 and climbed to new records on Thursday.

— Alex Harring

Spotify just got an upgrade from Goldman Sachs ahead of its fourth-quarter earnings report out next month.

Analyst Eric Sheridan upgraded the streaming giant to buy from neutral. He also lowered his 12-month price target by $35 to $700, which implies 40.4% potential upside from the stock’s latest close.

Sheridan said he remains bullish on Spotify’s competitive positioning given its steady Premium subscription price increases, introduction of new premium pricing tiers, healthy growth in monthly active users, especially in emerging markets, as well as advertising revenue growth reacceleration this year and beyond.

“In our opinion, we see SPOT as well-positioned to capitalize on/benefit from rising generative AI adoption given it is a) leading global position amongst distribution platforms; b) offering across media types; c) relationships with both large music labels and independent artists/content creators; & d) structural data advantage and existing scaled products to facilitate AI/ML-driven discovery/curation,” Sheridan said in a Thursday note to clients.

— Pia Singh

The stratospheric rise in metal prices threatens to turn the commodity group into a meme stock, according to futures and options broker Carley Garner.

Assets such as gold (up 15% year to date), silver (42%) and platinum (35%) are on a tear that began in early 2025. An ETF that tracks the group, the abrdn Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares, has posted a 26% gain in 2026 and has surged 124% from a year ago.

Garner, of DeCarley Trading, said in a post on her Facebook page that “there is no reasonable fundamental justification for these prices and this environment. They’ve GameStop’ed our commodities.”

She compared the metals moves to similar parabolic rises in natural gas, cocoa, the euro and cotton in prior years, noting, “none of them were sustainable.”

— Jeff Cox

Applied Materials is a buying opportunity now that the outlook for wafer fabrication equipment has improved, according to Deutsche Bank Research.

Research analyst Melissa Weathers upgraded the stock to buy from hold, saying the stock’s discount valuation to peers is overdone. Her price target of $390, hiked from $275, reflects upside of more than 22%.

“We are raising our estimates for AMAT to reflect a much more constructive WFE environment entering 2026 and 2027,” Weathers wrote. “Our out-year estimates now stand ~10% above Street, with potential upside risk.”

“In addition, we view the co’s current discount valuation to semicap peers as overdone, and see potential for this valuation gap to shrink going forward,” she added.

— Sarah Min

Higher tax refunds are poised to lift growth at Darden Restaurants, according to Mizuho, and the firm argues that this makes the stock more attractive.

Mizuho upgraded shares of Darden to an outperform rating from neutral, and hiked the stock’s price target to $235 from $195, indicating 14.5% upside from Thursday’s close.

In a note, Analyst Nick Setyan explained the upgrade based on estimates for higher same-store sales growth at LongHorn Steakhouse and Olive Garden, two of Darden’s restaurant chains. Value relative to higher beef costs at the grocery store makes LongHorn more attractive to consumers, while increased marketing at Olive Garden could be a catalyst for stronger growth, he said.

It is also a play based on expected benefits from the new tax law. “Higher tax refunds alone could contribute ~1.3% to both brands,” Setyan wrote in the note. He also expects all Darden brands will see lower labor and commodity inflation in fiscal year 2027, while menu prices still rise compared to fiscal year 2026. 

The upgrade aligns with Mizuho’s 2026 outlook, which named casual dining establishments as expected outperformers for the year. Shares of Darden in 2026 are up about 12%. 

— Davis Giangiulio

Deutsche Bank downgraded Sherwin-Williams to hold from buy Friday, saying the paint maker’s premium valuation is increasingly difficult to justify amid slowing earnings growth and a weak U.S. housing backdrop.

The firm cut its price target to $380, implying about 8% upside, and said Sherwin now appears fairly valued after revising down its earnings estimates for 2026.

Deutsche Bank said 2026 is shaping up to be Sherwin’s third consecutive year of sub-10% earnings growth Sherwin continues to trade at valuation levels typically reserved for “elite growth compounders,” the analysts said, with shares priced at about 29 times earnings and 21 times EBITDA.

Without a clear path back to sustained 10%-plus earnings growth, Deutsche Bank said the bias on the stock’s valuation multiple is now skewed to the downside.

— Yun Li

Consumer sentiment improved in January as near-term inflation expectations eased and geopolitical turmoil failed to dim confidence, according to a University of Michigan survey Friday.

The survey’s headline index came in at 56.4, up 6.6% from December though still down 21.3% from a year ago. The reading was better than the 54.0 Dow Jones consensus estimate. The current conditions index rose 9.9% while the expectations gauge was up 4.4%.

On inflation, the one-year outlook slipped to 4%, down 0.2 percentage point from the prior month and the lowest level since January 2025. However, the five-year outlook increased to 3.3%, up 0.1 percentage point.

“While the overall improvement was small, it was broad based, seen across the income distribution, educational attainment, older and younger consumers, and Republicans and Democrats alike,” survey Director Joanne Hsu said. “However, national sentiment remains more than 20% below a year ago, as consumers continue to report pressures on their purchasing power stemming from high prices and the prospect of weakening labor markets.”

— Jeff Cox

Manufacturing and services activity both were positive in January but reflected a slower growth pace for the U.S. economy, according to a report Friday from S&P Global.

The firm’s manufacturing survey of purchase managers came in at 51.9, a nudge higher than December but below the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 52.1.

On the services side, the PMI survey was at 52.5, unchanged from the prior month but below the estimate for 53.0.

The surveys gauge the share of managers reporting expansion, so anything above 50 represents growth. However, an S&P official expressed caution about the future.

” The survey is [indicating annualized] GDP growth of 1.5% for both December and January, and a worryingly subdued rate of new business growth across both manufacturing and services adds further to signs that first quarter growth could disappoint,” wrote Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

— Jeff Cox

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite began Friday’s session little changed.

The broad market index traded down 0.1% just after the opening bell, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 229 points, or 0.5%.

— Sean Conlon

Here are some stocks making moves before the bell:

• Intel — Shares fell 13% after Intel reported mixed results for the fourth quarter, in addition to issuing softer guidance than expected for the current three-month period. The company posted 15 cents per share on an adjusted basis, topping analysts’ consensus estimate of 8 center per share, per LSEG data. However, revenue fell short of their expectations at $13.7 billion versus the Street’s estimate of $13.4 billion. The firm also said it doesn’t have the supply it needs for seasonal demand in the first quarter, disappointing investors.
• SLM — The education loans company also known as Sallie Mae popped nearly 8% after reporting fourth–quarter earnings of $1.12 per share, topping the FactSet consensus estimate of 94 cents a share. SLM also authorized a new $500 million share repurchase program.
• Nvidia — The chipmaker’s shares rose about 1.5% after CNBC reported that CEO Jensen Huang plans to visit China in the coming days ahead of the mid-February Lunar New Year. The report comes as questions over the U.S. chip giant’s ability to sell in the Chinese market swirl.

Read more here.

— Liz Napolitano

Roth believes that potential upside from clinical data expected later this year, combined with above-consensus expectations for its lead drug, could boost Insmed.

The investment firm initiated the biopharmaceutical stock at a buy rating and $212 price target, implying an upside of 32% from here. Shares of Insmed have rallied 160% over the past 12 months.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Lisa Kailai Han

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang plans to visit China in the coming days ahead of the mid-February Lunar New Year, two people familiar with the matter told CNBC.

The trip comes as questions persist over the U.S. chip giant’s ability to sell in the Chinese market, which once accounted for at least one-fifth of revenue from Nvidia’s data center business. Read more.

— Evelyn Cheng

U.S. President Donald Trump’s warning that a U.S. “armada” is heading toward Iran has deepened concern of potential military action in the Middle East, pushing oil prices higher amid fears of supply disruption.

“We’re watching Iran,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Thursday. “You know we have a lot of ships going in that direction just in case. We have a big flotilla going in that direction and we’ll see what happens.”

The U.S. president also repeated his push for Tehran not to restart its nuclear program, echoing comments made to CNBC at the World Economic Forum earlier in the week.

Oil prices, which fell around 2% in the previous session, were trading higher on Friday morning. Read more.

Intel shares were down around 13% in the premarket Friday, putting the chipmaker on pace for its biggest one-day loss since Aug. 2, 2024. That day, the stock dropped 26.1%.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average closed at an all-time high Thursday and touched an intraday peak as well, confirming the Dow Theory in the current bull market and pointing to stocks’ underlying strength and breadth.

In fact, the Dow Transports — comprised of 20 leading shipping, logistics, trucking, rail and airline companies — has set at least three all-time closing highs in January, reinforcing the rally that’s also carried the 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average to several record closes this month.

Charles Dow, cofounder of the Wall Street Journal and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, believed that both the transports and the industrials had to each make new highs during roughly the same period in order to demonstrate the durability of an up move in stocks.

Conversely, if only one of the two averages made a new high, it meant that stocks were vulnerable to weakness or a reversal.

— Scott Schnipper

Capital One said Thursday that it was acquiring startup Brex for $5.15 billion, the latest splashy deal undertaken by CEO Richard Fairbank.

The firm, which disclosed the deal in its fourth-quarter earnings statement, said it would pay 50% cash and 50% stock for Brex.

Under Fairbank, a rare founder-CEO of a major U.S. bank, Capital One acquired rival card firm Discover Financial last year for about $35 billion. That deal was Fairbank’s crowning achievement, giving the credit card lender access to one of the only payment networks of any scale.

“Since our founding, we set out to build a payments company at the frontier of the technology revolution,” Fairbank said in a release. “Acquiring Brex accelerates this journey, especially in the business payments marketplace.”

— Hugh Son

Check out the companies making headlines in after-hours trading.

• Intel — Shares of the chipmaker slid more than 11% in extended trading. Intel gave soft revenue and earnings per share guidance for the current quarter. Intel said it expects first-quarter revenue between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, and breakeven adjusted earnings per share. Analysts polled by LSEG had called for earnings of 5 cents per share on $12.51 billion in sales.
• Intuitive Surgical — Shares of the surgical systems maker added 2% on the back of strong quarterly financial results. For the fourth quarter, Intuitive Surgical posted adjusted earnings of $2.53 per share. Analysts expected earnings of $2.26 per share. The company’s revenue came out at $2.87 billion, greater than the $2.75 billion expected by analysts.
• Capital One — Capital One stock dipped more than 2%. The bank announced on Thursday that it agreed to acquire startup Brex for $5.15 billion, in a deal consisting of 50% cash and 50% stock. Separately, fourth quarter adjusted earnings came up short against analysts’ estimates, landing at $3.86 per share. The LSEG consensus called for $4.11 per share.
• Clorox — The maker of household cleaning products saw shares slide roughly 1%. Clorox announced that it has entered an agreement to acquire Gojo Industries, the manufacturer of Purell, valued at $2.25 billion.

For the full list, read here.

— Pia Singh