Publisher | Putin’s ascent


The development of events in the war in Ukraine in recent weeks, contrary to their interests, prompted the Russian president to take a decisive step to escalate the conflict with thinly-veiled threats to resort to the mobilization of 300,000 reservists and nuclear arsenals. Have done – “We have many weapons to answer.” It was to be expected that Vladimir Putin would react after the bad news from the front multiplied, but also because of the weakening of his position with China, which is becoming more and more uncomfortable with the war, which is seriously is harmful. its business with Europe; against Turkey, which believes that the Russian withdrawal from the occupied territories is necessary for the weapons to remain silent; And in the face of the multiplication of internal discontent, in which the opposition to the war of more than 80 parishioners from Moscow and St. Petersburg was only a small sample. Putin has reacted like a corner leader, ready to do whatever it takes, forcing us to regard nuclear blackmail as a serious threat directed at the international community.

The rush to hold express referendums in Lugansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporia oblasts to convert the four provinces into Russian territory confirms the seriousness of the nuclear risk. Although the OSCE cautions that the referendum does not have legal significance, once the de facto annexation is completed, the Kremlin may present any attack in those provinces as an attack on its territorial integrity and to enforce the principle. may feel entitled to, according to which the Sahara nuclear arsenal is justified. At the same time, it is more than possible that crossing such a red line will not be in the plans of a significant part of the country. Establishment Including many oligarchs who have supported Putin’s decisions to this day.

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The same can be said of the immediate effect of water mobilization, something that is equivalent to bringing war to every household and, consequently, to the strengthening of hitherto far too small and localized opposition movements. Cross-border exodus from Finland and airports, with potential reservists on their way to Armenia and Turkey, who do not require visas from Russian citizens, is more than a real phenomenon. Overnight, Russian public opinion has gone from reporting a special military operation with limited objectives, according to the official version, to calling it in battle for defense, a range of 1,000 kilometers and, for now, the cost of the Russian military. 6,000 may be dead.

What seemed impossible on 24 February, the prolongation of the war, Ukraine’s ability to deter, West’s aid and uncontrolled escalation, has finally become possible. There is no sound on the immediate horizon capable of pacifying the spirits that let the crisis lead to some sort of conflict that allows the future to be negotiated. But it is necessary to shun conflict from war logic and cling to reality, even if it involves accepting that Russia’s border with Ukraine will never return to the annexation of Crimea. Donbass and the beginning of the invasion. Something that must have included NATO’s acknowledgment of the miscalculation by promoting its limitless expansion in the east, which has prompted Russia to present an aggression as a deterrent defense move, as well as others to Russian Many potential targets of expansionism have been left defenseless.

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