Lula’s advantage over Bolsonaro in the latest poll pushes the “useful vote” in Brazil


Ten days before the presidential elections in Brazil, some surveys point to a growth trend in voting intentions for the former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, that if it is maintained, it can define the vote in the first round, on October 2.

Lula’s advantage has stimulated a campaign among his voters for the “useful vote” and an increase in the aggressiveness of the supporters of the President Jair Bolsonarowho try to take the lawsuit to a second round.

The Datafolha survey, released on Thursday night, shows that Lula has already reached 50% of the valid votes (discounting null and blank votes), and is just one point away from a definitive victory in the first round. Considering a two point margin of error of the survey, Lula would have between a 48 and 52% of the valid votes. Bolsonaro, for his part, remains in 35% in this key poll, contracted by the Folha de São Paulo newspaper and the TV Globo network.

Without considering the valid votes, Lula rose from 45% to 47%, and Bolsonaro remained at 33%. Lula’s chance of victory is sustained by the stagnation of other centrist candidates such as Ciro Gomes, with 7%, and simone thebetthe novelty of this electoral race, with 5%. The remaining 8% is divided among seven candidates who do not reach 1%, white, null and undecided votes.

According to the analysis presented by Datafolha, at this time, 80% of Brazilian voters consider that their decision to vote is final, 19% declare that they can still change their mind until election day and 1% do not know how. will vote. According to the pollster, if the election reaches a second round, Lula would win by 54% against 38% for Bolsonaro.

Broad Front Attempt

The chances that Lula will win in the first round have led his voters to ask the undecided to vote for a third government of the leader of the Workers’ Party (PT). Lula, who was already president twice, between 2003 and 2010, has returned to politics at the age of 76, after spending 580 days in jail (between 2018 and 2019) accused of corruption. But their sentences were overturned in the Supreme Courtrecovering his political rights in 1921.

A few days before the first round, Lula has launched a campaign for the construction of a broad front for democracy, in opposition to the authoritarian style of the far-right Bolsonaro. In the last week, Lula received the support of the environmentalist Marina Silva, one of the most important deserters of the PT during his government, and the lawyer Miguel Reali Junior, former Minister of Justice, and one of the authors of the complaint that led to the ‘impeachment’ of Lula’s successor, Dilma Rousseff.

One of the most anticipated voices of that movement, the former president Fernando Henrique Cardosohe did not declare his vote for Lula, but he asked his voters for a decision for democracy. Important names from his Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB), preferred to support the PT for the first time.

books vs guns

The artistic class, one of those that suffered the most from Bolsonaro’s financial cuts and attacks on culture, also began a campaign in support of Lula, recording videos to ask the undecided to vote for the PT player. Famous actors from telenovelas on the Globo network, singers like Caetano VelosoThey published videos on their social networks in which they change the gesture of imitating a weapon with their hands, used by Bolsonaro and his militancy, for the letter “L” for Lula.

On social media, Lula supporters posted photos with stacks of 13 books, referring to the PT’s number and the symbol that opposes Bolsonaro’s pro-gun campaign. Lula has already declared that he wants to increase the number of libraries in his government to confront Bolsonaro’s arms policy.

According to the NGOs Instituto Sou da Paz (I am of Peace) and Igarapé, Brazil has a million weapons in circulation in the hands of hunters, shooters and collectors. The number is almost three times higher than in 2018when Bolsonaro was elected president.

“Don’t forget that the other guy, the one with the nine fingers (Lula lost a finger in a work accident at the age of 19), said that he will put an end to the issue of weapons in Brazil. He will collect the weapons, the weapons clubs will become libraries, as if he were an example for this », criticized Bolsonaro during a live broadcast on the internet in which he celebrated the increase in the number of armed people in the country.

Those numbers are a concern among public safety specialists and election watchers. Bolsonaro has already made it clear on several occasions that he will not accept the result and has been inflaming his voters, many of whom are armed, while the polls confirm that his chances of re-election are increasingly low.

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