Champions League: The Numbers Game – How Many Points Do You Need to Progress?
The 2024/25 UEFA Champions League campaign is off to a flying start, with Premier League sides Aston Villa and Liverpool already picking up crucial points. Manchester City and Arsenal are up next, facing Inter Milan and Atalanta respectively. But how many points do you need to secure a spot in the next round?
According to Opta statistician Nils Mackay, just 10 points gives any team a 99% chance of progressing from the group stage. That’s the equivalent of winning two and drawing one, or losing one and drawing two, in your four matches.
If you’re looking to secure a spot in the knockout stages without the need for a play-off round, 16 points is the magic number. This requires a strong start, with three wins and a draw, or two wins, two draws, and a loss.
Four Premier League teams have qualified for the competition this season, and it’s been a successful start for Aston Villa and Liverpool. Villa’s 3-0 win over Young Boys was their first Champions League victory, with goals from Youri Tielemans, Jacob Ramsey, and Amadou Onana. Liverpool, meanwhile, beat AC Milan 3-1, thanks to strikes from Ibrahima Konate, Virgil van Dijk, and Dominik Szoboszlai.
Manchester City, the reigning champions, are up against Inter Milan on Wednesday. Pep Guardiola’s side will be looking to overcome Real Madrid to reclaim their crown. Arsenal, meanwhile, begin their journey against Atalanta on Thursday night. Mikel Arteta has spoken confidently about his side’s chances, insisting no game is to be taken lightly.
"The new schedule and extended workload will add an extra challenge, but we’re ready for it," Arteta said. "You want to finish as high as possible, and in order to do that, you have to win every game. Every game is going to be crucial."
So, which teams will make it through to the next round? Will Manchester City and Arsenal join Aston Villa and Liverpool in the knockout stages? Follow us on all social media platforms for more updates and analysis throughout the campaign.