Bank of America Securities’ Savita Subramanian just issued the most bearish view on the Street for 2026, based on CNBC’s early calculations. The firm’s head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy expects the S & P 500 will end next year at 7,100, a target that means the broader index will rise just 4% above current levels. The S & P 500 closed Friday at 6,827.41. At one point last week, it closed above 6,900 for the first time ever. “I think it’s going to be a year where we see some significant multiple compression,” Subramanian told CNBC’s ” Squawk Box ” on Monday. “And the reason really is the stocks in the S & P right now that are the bulk of the market are not the economically sensitive companies,” she continued. “They’re really the AI plays, the kind of the buy-the-dream companies, and those we see as maybe headed for a little bit of an air pocket in 2026.” That view is at odds with many other strategists on the Street, who expect that artificial intelligence will carry the bull market for another year even. Oppenheimer’s John Stoltzfus, who has the most bullish view thus far, expects the S & P 500 could rally to 8,100 next year . Deutsche Bank’s Binky Chadha sees 8,000. Elsewhere, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee said the S & P 500 will rise to 7,700 in 2026 , saying investors’ “wall of worry” is a tailwind for the market. But Subramanian expects the recent slide in technology stocks will continue next year when AI will likely start to hit the labor market, meaning a broader swath of consumers will start to suffer than the lower-income cohort that has thus far absorbed the brunt of any economic weakness. “Where we are now is a point where you really have to pick a side,” Subramanian said. “So, either AI stocks are all that, but if that’s the case, they’re going to take a bunch of jobs away, which means the consumption could alter next year. So, you know, I worry about the idea that we’re just pricing in the best of everything right now.” As a result, in an out of consensus view, the BofA Securities strategist recommends that investors overweight consumer staples companies and underweight consumer discretionary stocks,
