2024 Copa America predictions: Who will win the tournament in United States?


The 2024 Copa America is just around the corner and the tournament is back, bigger and better than ever.

Just as they did in 2016, the United States will host the latest edition of South America’s most prestigious tournament. Thankfully, the USMNT qualified and will be able to partake, with another five CONCACAF teams added to the mix in Mexico, Canada, Costa Rica, Panama, and Jamaica.

The group stages were drawn out a while ago, meaning we’ve been able to plot potential routes to the final for some time.

So, with that in mind, here’s how 90min predicts things will go down.

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Argentina are holders of both the Copa America and World Cup / JUAN IGNACIO RONCORONI/GettyImages

There’s really only one place to start. It was the previous edition of this tournament in Brazil three years ago that finally landed Lionel Messi his first-ever international trophy and he hasn’t looked back from there, adding the 2022 World Cup and Finalissima to his collection.

Argentina will be the favorite to win Group A, of course, but the battle for the second slot is wide open. Chile will have fond memories of playing in the United States given the second of its back-to-back Copa Americas — its only two titles to date — came in this country, but Peru also reached the final as recently as 2019.

And with the likes of Alphonso Davies, Jonathan David, and Tajon Buchanan on display, nobody can write off tournament debutants Canada, though finishing bottom of its group at the World Cup despite spirited performances doesn’t bode well.

Position

Nation

Predicted Points

1.

Argentina

9

2.

Chile

4

3.

Peru

2

4.

Canada

1

Edson Álvarez

Mexico will aim to top Group B / Ron Jenkins/GettyImages

This group should be all about Mexico and Ecuador, who appear to be much stronger on paper than their counterparts and will battle it out for top spot.

Jamaica can surprise a few now and again but its Copa America record is dismal, with six defeats from six across 2015 and 2016, failing to score a single goal.

As for Venezuela, they rarely make it out of the group stage with just eight wins from 70 all-time Copa America matches. La Vinotinto should finish third but ultimately won’t have enough to progress.

Position

Nation

Predicted Points

1.

Mexico

7

2.

Ecuador

7

3.

Venezuela

3

4.

Jamaica

0

Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie, Gio Reyna

The USMNT has high hopes for Copa America / Stephen Nadler/ISI Photos/USSF/GettyImages

Similar to Group B, Group C should be all about two teams.

As hosts and one of the most exciting teams at the tournament, the United States will be hellbent on topping the group to gain a more favorable quarterfinal tie. However, Uruguay are still among the tournament favorites, so it could all come down to their meeting at Arrowhead Stadium on July 1.

Panama isn’t a pushover and will test both the USA and Uruguay and might well beat Bolivia, which has lost 20 and won just one of its 29 Copa America matches since finishing as the shock runnerup in 1997.

Position

Nation

Predicted Points

1.

Uruguay

7

2.

United States

7

3.

Panama

3

4.

Bolivia

0

Spain v Brazil

Brazil is the massive Group D favorite / Anadolu/GettyImages

Nine-time champion Brazil hasn’t lost more than one game at a single edition of Copa America since 2001, winning the competition three times since then. If the Seleção doesn’t top Group D, it will be viewed as a disaster.

That will leave Colombia and Paraguay to battle it out for second, with the former’s superior offensive quality surely shining through. Costa Rica can be rugged and hard to break, but it’s hard to make a case for anything more than a point or two at best.

Position

Nation

Predicted Points

1.

Brazil

9

2.

Colombia

6

3.

Paraguay

3

4.

Costa Rica

0

This is where things start to get really interesting. 16 has become eight with the big guns through with the bare minimum of scrapes.

The first quarterfinal pits defending champs Argentina against Group B runnerup Ecuador in a fixture La Albiceleste hasn’t lost since 2015. There’s no reason to expect any different, even if Ecuador does put up a decent fight.

Next up is Mexico vs Chile in one of the hardest quarterfinals to predict. Though Chile has fond memories of this tournament, it isn’t the power it once was and should prove beatable for El Tri.

Attention then turns to Uruguay vs Colombia in a clash between a tournament giant and one of the most underperforming nations in international soccer. Uruguay has won just one of its last six meetings with Colombia, who boast strong firepower in the likes of Luis Diaz and James Rodriguez. But there’s something about this new generation of Uruguayans and they should just about have enough, even if it’ll take extratime and penalties.

Finally, it’s arguably the world’s most iconic national team against the hosts. Finishing second in their group has really cost the USMNT here and although they’ll push Brazil to its limit, it just won’t be enough. Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo, and Co. are just too strong.

Predicted quarterfinal fixtures

Winner

Score

Argentina vs Ecuador

Argentina

2-0

Mexico vs Chile

Mexico

1-0

Uruguay vs Colombia

Uruguay

1-1 (Uruguay wins on PKs)

Brazil vs United States

Brazil

2-1 (AET)

The CONMEBOL ‘big three’ of Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay are all through, joined by two-time Copa America finalist and nine-time CONCACAF Gold Cup champion Mexico. The stakes are high and the quality on show is even higher.

Although Mexican fans will travel in force and their players will employ the darkest of arts to try and put off the likes of Messi, Angel Di Maria, and Lautaro Martinez, you cannot cope with that sort of class by using dirty tricks alone. Argentina win ugly, but they still make it comfortable.

In the other semifinal, all signs point to Brazil booking another date with arch-rivals Argentina in the showpiece. However, Uruguay beat Brazil for the first time since 2001 in World Cup qualifying recently, while it’s no secret that emotion can often get the better of the five-time World Cup champions, especially in recent years. If you’re looking for a shock, you may just find it here and Uruguay being Uruguay, it might just be on PKs again.

Predicted semifinal fixtures

Winner

Score

Argentina vs Mexico

Argentina

3-0

Brazil vs Uruguay

Uruguay

1-1 (Uruguay wins on PKs)

90min is predicting that, for the first time ever, Argentina and Uruguay will meet in a Copa America final. Given they’re the two most successful nations in tournament history with 15 titles each, that’s incredible to consider, but it’s easy to forget that for the longest time, this competition was based on a league format.

There will be plenty of bite to this match, with Uruguay desperate to lift their first title since 2011 and stop what could be Messi’s international swansong. And Argentina will be equally motivated for the latter reason, not to mention trying to retain the trophy for the first time since 1993.

And, of course, there is the small matter of who becomes the most successful nation in Copa America history on the line.

So, expect blood, guts, and tears. Maybe even extratime. But Argentina just has too much firepower to mess this one up.

Predicted final

Winner

Score

Argentina vs Uruguay

Argentina

2-1 (AET)

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Messi won the Copa America Golden Boot for the first time in 2021 / DANIEL RAMALHO/GettyImages

Some of the best players ever to grace a soccer field have won the Copa America Golden Boot, including Ronaldo, Rivaldo, Pele, Gabriel Batistuta, and finally, Lionel Messi, who picked up his first award in the previous edition of the tournament.

But there have been plenty of unexpected top scorers, too. Eduardo Vargas hit six goals to inspire Chile to their second consecutive title in 2016 and Venezuela’s Jose Luis Dolgetta won it in 1993 with four goals, despite only managing six during his entire national team career.

If they go all the way again as we’ve predicted, Argentina has plenty of Golden Boot candidates. Not least Messi, but also Lautaro Martinez and Angel Di Maria.

Of course, there’s not forgetting Real Madrid duo Vinicius Junior and Rodrygo for Brazil, while Luis Diaz shared the award with Messi in 2021.

With this potentially his last-ever international championship, we’re backing Messi.

Endrick

Endrick is already making waves at just 17 years old / Catherine Ivill/GettyImages

Copa America is one of the most productive talent factories in world soccer and with the likes of the USA and Mexico joining the party, there are so many up-and-comers who can leave their mark.

The likes of Alejandro Garnacho for Argentina and Julio Enciso of Paraguay may see this as a great opportunity to show the world why they’re so highly rated in the Premier League.

However, given he is set to join Real Madrid after this tournament and scored his first two senior international goals against England and Spain recently, surely there can be no looking past 17-year-old wonderkid Endrick.

Gregg Berhalter

The USMNT is under a lot of pressure this summer. / Omar Vega/GettyImages

Given the way the draw has landed, we could easily see the USMNT crash out in the quarterfinals or, god forbid, in the group stages. Either scenario would be an absolute disaster but, although shocking, not the biggest surprise you’re likely to see in soccer.

Could the pressure of hosting get to Gregg Berhalter’s young team?

Although their aims are much lower, there will be a lot of disappointment in Canada if they don’t at least register a few points given the talent they have at their disposal.

Luis Diaz

Can Luis Diaz fire Colombia to glory? / Warren Little/GettyImages

They’ve underachieved for so long but although we haven’t predicted it ourselves, there’s a very real scenario where Colombia goes deep this summer.

Los Cafeteros have some terrifying firepower in Diaz, Rodriguez, and Co. However, the supporting cast behind them isn’t bad either with the likes of Jefferson Lerma, Jhon Lucumi, and Daniel Munoz.

As long as they finish in the top two in their group, Colombia will probably face the USA or Uruguay in the quarterfinals, which while not easy, is much preferable to Brazil or Argentina.

From there, anything can happen.

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